2026 Midyear Housing Market: Sales Up, Prices Flat, and the Westside

The first half of 2026 is in the books, and the national housing data tells a clear and somewhat unusual story: home sales are up nearly 4% over the first half of last year, while home prices finished the period essentially flat. Sales are rising. Prices are not. That divergence is the defining characteristic of the market at the midyear point, and understanding it — along with what it means specifically for the Westside of Los Angeles — is worth a clear look as we head into the second half of the year.

Here is what the midyear data shows nationally, what the setup looks like for the back half of 2026, and how the Westside market compares to the national picture.

The National Midyear Numbers

The industry data through the end of June paints a picture of slow, consistent growth rather than any kind of boom or bust:

Sales are up. New pending home sales for the most recent week came in around 85,000, running 5.9% ahead of the same week last year. Year to date, sales are running 3.9% ahead of 2025. This is the seventh consecutive stretch of year-over-year sales growth, indicating that buyers have steadily returned to the market through the first half of the year.

Prices are flat. Despite the increase in sales volume, prices have not followed. Price per square foot nationally is running about 2% below last year. The median pending sale price is up just 0.5%. The Case-Shiller index rose 0.7% for April. In aggregate, national prices finished the first half of 2026 basically unchanged from the first half of 2025.

Mortgage rates have held in the mid-6s. Rates have hovered in the mid-6% range for months — slightly below where they were a year ago. This relative stability, after the volatility of prior years, has supported the steady return of buyers without providing the dramatic rate relief that would accelerate price growth.

Inventory has plateaued. There were roughly 1.09 million homes for sale nationally in the most recent week, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Inventory has hit its typical summer plateau. Notably, this is below what many analysts forecasted at the start of the year — the expectation of a 10% increase in supply through 2026 has not materialized. Shortage markets like Chicago and New York have seen little to no relief.

Price cuts remain common but stable. About 39.5% of homes on the market have taken a price cut — slightly fewer than last year, but not improving enough to shift prices higher. This reflects a market where sellers are still adjusting expectations to meet buyers, but where the overall balance is holding steady rather than tipping in either direction.

What the Second Half of 2026 Likely Holds

Based on the midyear data, the setup for the back half of the year points to a continuation of the slow-growth pattern:

Home sales are likely to stay slightly elevated over 2025 levels, continuing the year-to-date trend. Home prices will probably generate some negative headlines — the price-per-square-foot softness and the ongoing price cuts create the raw material for "prices are falling" stories — but are likely to finish the year close to unchanged rather than declining meaningfully. Inventory, which has been falling relative to earlier expectations, should not fall much further and will likely finish the year up around 3% over last year.

The entire forecast rests on one variable: mortgage rates staying out of the 7% range. If rates hold in the mid-6s or ease slightly, the slow, steady growth pattern continues. If rates spike back above 7%, expect demand to slow and inventory to build later in the year. Rates are the swing factor that determines which version of the second half actually plays out.

How the Westside Compares

The national picture is useful context, but the Westside of Los Angeles has been telling a somewhat different story throughout 2026 — and the differences matter for anyone making real estate decisions in our market.

On prices, the Westside has been more stable than the national softening. While national price per square foot is running 2% below last year, the Westside has held firmer. In Westchester specifically, our Q2 2026 data showed median sale prices tracking essentially even with 2025 across April, May, and June. The national narrative of softening prices, driven largely by inventory-heavy Sun Belt markets, has not translated into meaningful Westside price declines. The structural supply constraints that define the Westside — limited new construction, the mortgage lock-in effect, zoning limits — continue to support pricing here in a way that the national aggregate does not capture.

On inventory, the Westside mirrors the national plateau. The national inventory story — supply that plateaued rather than climbing as forecast — is consistent with what we see on the Westside. Inventory here remains constrained, below the levels that would shift the market meaningfully toward buyers. Months of supply in Westchester held at 3 throughout Q2, well below the 5-to-6 months that defines a balanced market.

On sales velocity, the Westside has seen the normal seasonal pattern. The national data shows sales running ahead of last year. On the Westside, we saw strong spring velocity moderate into early summer — average days on market in Westchester lengthened from 18 in May to the low 50s in June — which is a normal seasonal pattern rather than a sign of market weakness. The underlying transaction volume remains healthy.

On rates, the Westside is subject to the same swing factor. The mid-6% rate environment affects Westside buyers exactly as it affects buyers nationally. The same caveat applies: if rates hold or ease, the steady market continues. If they spike, Westside demand slows along with the national market. The one distinction is that the Westside's structural supply constraint means that even in a rate-driven slowdown, meaningful price declines are less likely here than in markets with abundant inventory.

What This Means for Westside Buyers and Sellers

For buyers: The current environment is one of the more favorable in recent years for buyers who are financially prepared. Rates have stabilized. Prices are not running away the way they did in 2021. Days on market have lengthened, providing time for genuine due diligence. And the negotiating environment, while not a buyers' market in the structural sense, offers more room than the frenzied conditions of a few years ago. The buyers who benefit most are the ones who are pre-qualified with the right lender and positioned to move when the right property appears.

For sellers: The stable-price, steady-sales environment supports strong outcomes for well-prepared listings. The key discipline is pricing to current conditions rather than to peak-spring conditions or to national headlines. The Westside pricing story remains fundamentally sound — flat to slightly up year over year rather than declining — but the properties achieving the best outcomes are the ones priced accurately and presented professionally from day one. Overpricing and hoping for a bidding war is a strategy suited to a different market than the current one.

For everyone: The single most important variable to watch for the rest of 2026 is mortgage rates. The entire forecast — nationally and on the Westside — depends on rates staying out of the 7% range. That is the number to watch as the second half of the year unfolds.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 housing market at the halfway point is a slow-growth market: sales modestly up, prices essentially flat, inventory plateaued, and rates stable in the mid-6s. It is neither the boom that sellers might hope for nor the correction that some buyers have been waiting for. It is a steady, functional market that rewards preparation on both sides of the transaction.

On the Westside, that national picture holds with one important modification: prices here have been more stable than the national softening, supported by the structural supply constraints that have defined this market for years. The buyers and sellers who do best in this environment are the ones who understand both the national context and the specific local reality — and who make decisions based on the market their property is actually in rather than the headlines about the market in aggregate.

That local, transaction-level read is exactly what we provide. If you want to understand what the current market means for your specific situation, that conversation should be grounded in Westside data, not national averages.

Sources: National housing data reflects industry mid-year 2026 market analysis including weekly pending sales, active inventory, price-per-square-foot, Case-Shiller index, and mortgage rate figures as of end of June 2026. Westside figures from Combined Los Angeles Westside MLS data. Report accuracy not guaranteed and may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Call 310.499.2020 or reach out online for a current read on your specific Westside neighborhood.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What did the housing market do in the first half of 2026?

Nationally, home sales finished the first half of 2026 running nearly 4% ahead of the first half of 2025 — the continuation of a steady, months-long trend of year-over-year sales growth. Home prices, however, finished the period essentially flat. Price per square foot ran about 2% below last year, median pending prices were up just 0.5%, and the Case-Shiller index rose 0.7% for April. Mortgage rates held in the mid-6% range throughout, and inventory plateaued rather than climbing as many analysts had forecast.

Q: Are home prices going up or down in 2026?

Nationally, prices are essentially flat — neither rising meaningfully nor falling meaningfully. Sales volume is up, but that increased activity has not translated into price growth. On the Westside of Los Angeles specifically, prices have been more stable than the national softening, with Westchester Q2 2026 median prices tracking essentially even with 2025. The likely outcome for the full year, both nationally and on the Westside, is prices finishing close to unchanged despite some negative headlines along the way.

Q: What is the housing market forecast for the second half of 2026?

The midyear data points to a continuation of the slow-growth pattern: home sales staying slightly elevated over 2025 levels, prices finishing the year close to unchanged despite some negative headlines, and inventory finishing up around 3% over last year after plateauing through the summer. The entire forecast depends on mortgage rates staying out of the 7% range. If rates hold or ease, the steady growth continues; if they spike, demand slows and inventory builds later in the year.

Q: How does the Los Angeles Westside market compare to the national housing market in 2026?

The Westside has been more price-stable than the national market. While national price per square foot runs about 2% below last year, Westside prices have held firmer, supported by structural supply constraints. Westchester Q2 2026 median prices tracked essentially even with 2025. Inventory on the Westside mirrors the national plateau and remains constrained, with Westchester months of supply at 3 — well below the balanced-market threshold. The Westside is subject to the same mortgage rate swing factor as the national market.

Q: What is the most important factor for the housing market for the rest of 2026?

Mortgage rates. The entire midyear forecast — nationally and on the Westside — rests on rates staying out of the 7% range. Rates have held in the mid-6s for months. If they continue to hold or ease slightly, the slow, steady growth pattern continues. If they spike above 7%, expect demand to slow and inventory to build later in the year. Rates are the single variable that determines which version of the second half plays out.