Mortgage Rates Hit the Lowest Level Since 2022: What It Means for Buyers & Sellers Right Now (2026 Update)

Mortgage costs have meaningfully improved to start 2026. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.06% (as of Jan. 15, 2026)—down from 6.16% last week and 7.04% a year ago. The 15-year fixed average is 5.38%.

That “6% handle” matters more than it sounds. National outlets are framing it as the lowest level since late 2022 and a real test of whether buyers will re-enter the market ahead of spring.

Why This Matters: A Small Rate Move = Real Monthly Savings

Even a ~1% drop in rates can change affordability dramatically.

Example (principal & interest only):

On a $750,000 loan, the payment at 6.06% is about $4,526/mo, versus about $5,010/mo at 7.04%—a difference of ~$484/mo (before taxes/insurance).

Another way to look at it: the payment you’d make borrowing $500,000 at 7.04% is roughly the same payment as borrowing ~$553,500 at 6.06%—about $53,500 more purchasing power.

(Rates vary by borrower, down payment, credit, points, loan type, and lender—always confirm specifics with a trusted mortgage professional.)

What’s Driving Mortgage Rates Lower in January 2026?

A few forces are converging:

• Bond-market moves tied to Fed policy expectations: Mortgage rates often follow long-term Treasury yields. AP notes rates began easing ahead of Fed cuts that started in September 2025.
• Government action in mortgage bonds: Reuters reports the administration directed the Federal Housing Finance Agency to purchase $200B in bonds issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, beginning with an initial $3B round—aimed at improving affordability and lowering mortgage rates.
• Activity is already responding: Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted purchase and refinance activity have “jumped,” signaling momentum heading into spring.
• Refinancing surged: AP reports MBA data showing refinance applications up 40% week-over-week, and purchase applications up 16%.

What This Means for Buyers Right Now

If you’re a buyer, the market just handed you a better math problem—without necessarily handing sellers a stronger hand (yet).

1) You may get more home for the same monthly payment

Lower rates can increase your buying power (sometimes meaningfully), which helps in higher-priced markets where affordability is everything.

2) You could face less competition than you would after the next big headline

Bloomberg calls this moment “something fresh to sell” heading into spring—but also questions whether it’s enough to pull hesitant buyers off the sidelines. That hesitation can be an opportunity for prepared buyers.

3) Negotiation room can improve (especially with the right strategy)

In many transactions today, the “win” isn’t just price—it’s terms:

• Seller credit for closing costs
• Temporary rate buydowns (when available/appropriate)
• Repairs and credits based on inspections
• Flexible timelines

Stephanie Younger Group tip: If you’re rate-sensitive, make your offer structure do more of the heavy lifting than your top-line price.

What This Means for Sellers Right Now

Sellers have been waiting for one thing: more qualified buyers. Rates near 6% can help deliver that.

1) More buyers can qualify—and that helps your days-on-market

Freddie Mac highlighted that falling rates are already boosting activity, with spring shaping up to be stronger.

2) Move-up sellers may finally see the “lock-in” pressure ease a bit

If you’ve been sitting on a low-rate mortgage and felt stuck, a 6% market doesn’t recreate 2021—but it can narrow the gap enough to make a move feasible for more households. (This is especially true if you have significant equity.)

3) The best listings will capture the returning demand first

If buyer demand rebounds unevenly, presentation and pricing matter even more:

• Sharp staging + strong photography
• Pre-inspection strategy (or clear repair posture)
• Pricing that matches today’s buyer psychology, not last year’s headlines

The 2026 “Window”: Why Acting Before the Spring Rush Can Pay Off

This is the kind of rate shift that can change sentiment quickly. And sentiment moves markets.

Freddie Mac’s survey puts the 30-year at 6.06% today, and economists broadly expect easing to continue—but with most forecasts still hovering above 6% rather than a return to 3–4% territory.

So the practical playbook is:

• Buyers: get fully underwritten early; shop with a plan, not just a wishlist.
• Sellers: prepare the home now so you’re “first wave ready” when more buyers reappear.

Quick FAQs

Are mortgage rates expected to drop below 6% in 2026?

They may dip at times, but most mainstream expectations still cluster around the low-6% range rather than a dramatic return to pandemic-era rates.

Should I wait to buy until rates drop further?

If you find the right home at the right price and can comfortably afford it, waiting can be risky—because lower rates can also bring more competition. Bloomberg notes the key question is whether today’s dip is enough to bring buyers back—if it is, pressure can rise quickly.

Is this a good time to refinance?

Refinance interest is already spiking (MBA data shows a large weekly jump), but whether it makes sense depends on your current rate, your timeline, and closing costs.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates just hit their lowest levels since 2022, and the early signs show buyers and homeowners are responding.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or considering a move-up plan, this is a moment to revisit strategy—because the market can shift quickly as we approach spring.